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Powell statement: Market challenging Fed’s credibility on inflation targeting
The knee-jerk market response that sent the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.54% during Thursday’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell implies that the Fed may have to act to dampen yields at...
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Flattening Phillips curve implies greater space to address economic needs
During the past few decades, as the economy has shifted from one based on manufacturing to one based on information and digital technologies, this traditionally inverse relationship between...
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FOMC preview: Fed to consider adjustments key to the middle market
Much is riding on the Federal Open Market Committee policy rate meeting next week, given recent changes in the economic landscape. Rising growth expectations, increasing interest rates, modestly higher...
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FOMC meeting comment: Welcome to the boomtown
The onset of a recovery in the U.S. economy and the growing likelihood of a robust expansion this year and next resulted in a significant upgrade of the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic...
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Bank of Canada policy decision: Tapering bond purchases by $3 billion a week
An improved economic outlook and growing confidence among central bankers have created the conditions in which the Bank of Canada is now comfortable paring back the pace of bond purchases by $3 billion...
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Interest rate update: The changing yield landscape, in eight charts
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has moved to 1.55%, within 50 basis points of already low pre-pandemic rates. While anything near 1.60% is better than the roughly 0.60% observed last year, we...
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Frothy markets and the risk to the economic outlook in the era of low...
The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Plus Index has reached 2.9 standard deviations above neutral, an unprecedented level that signals the possibility of froth in asset markets in line with the...
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Interest rate update: Recent increase shows progress on the path to...
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is approaching 1.7%, within 20 basis points of already low pre-pandemic rates. The move higher is in response to signs of an economic recovery and perceived risks...
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What’s behind the recent decline in 10-year Treasury yields
The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has dropped nearly 25 basis points to below 1.5%, touching 1.42% overnight on June 11 from its recent peak of 1.74% on March 31. If the initial move up to 1.74% can...
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FOMC comment: Fed creates context to end pandemic policy efforts
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday took another step in the long road to policy normalization in the post-pandemic economy. At the monthly meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank...
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RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: Accommodation to continue while...
At its June policy meeting, the Bank of Canada reiterated its intention to maintain an accommodative monetary policy as uncertainty over the pace of the pandemic abates and the economy recovers. As it...
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FOMC preview: Expect more talk, less action at the July meeting
Inflationary risk and the delta variant of the coronavirus will be front and center at next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, while policy changes will take a back seat. The primary...
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Federal Reserve policy and interest rates in 10 charts
The Federal Open Market Committee retained its accommodative policy stance on Wednesday, keeping short-term rates at the zero bound to provide liquidity for commercial activity. The FOMC said it would...
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Fed Jackson Hole conference: Powell reaffirms market expectations
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s widely anticipated comments on the economic outlook did not disappoint on Friday. He reaffirmed market expectations of a slowing in the pace of monetary...
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FOMC meeting: Prelude to tapering amid global financial turbulence
Monetary policy is always a difficult judgment call. Balancing growing global risk aversion, domestic political turmoil and general uncertainty around the underlying condition of the real economy make...
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Bank of Canada talks like a hawk and walks like a dove as it keeps rates steady
The emerging trend of central banks talking like hawks and walking like doves amid supply chain disruptions and persistent inflation continued as the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 0.25% on...
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FOMC preview: Tapering explained
Next week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will focus on the Federal Reserve’s exit from its pandemic-era asset purchase program that has sent its balance sheet above $8.5 trillion. We...
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RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index: An inflation tantrum?
Financial markets around the world are reacting to the rising risk of inflation and the prospect of policy responses by central banks, all of which have led to a modest easing in our RSM Canada...
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Fed slows asset purchases as it moves to end pandemic-era accommodation
The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that later this month it would start paring back its pandemic-era monetary accommodation even as it held its policy rate between zero and 25 basis points....
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Looking ahead to 2022 and what to expect in the economy
Nearly two years into the pandemic, there are signs that the worst of a once-in-a-century shock to the global economy is beginning to fade. As the economy approaches a full reopening, we expect growth...
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RSM US Financial Conditions Index: Setting the stage for sustained growth
Manufacturers are expecting increased activity in the coming months, surveys by the regional Federal Reserve banks suggest. But perhaps more important in terms of productivity and global...
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Powell reappointed to lead the Fed, with Brainard elevated to vice chairwoman
The Biden administration’s widely expected reappointment of Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve on Monday is a strong step toward providing stability and clarity for financial markets at a...
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Bank of Canada decision: Central bankers set the stage for 2022 rate hikes
The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 0.25% at its December meeting on Wednesday as it prepares the public and market participants for the normalization of monetary policy and the first increase...
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U.S. Consumer Price Index: Inflation broadens out as shelter costs rise by 4.8%
November inflation data, rising by 6.8% on the year, offered no relief for American households as energy and transportation costs continued to drive prices higher. While there is some relief over the...
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RSM US Financial Conditions Index: A move toward normal
After nearly two years of extreme accommodation in the financial markets, the RSM US Financial Conditions index stands at 0.96 standard deviations above neutral—a decline from the elevated levels...
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The Real Economy, Volume 86: How the Fed is managing its dual mandate
The Federal Reserve faces a difficult task in fulfilling the two mandates it has been given by Congress: Achieving full employment while keeping inflation in check. In this month’s issue of The Real...
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FOMC policy decision: Fed hikes policy rate by 75 basis points
The Federal Reserve’s price stability campaign advanced at its Wednesday meeting via a hike in the federal funds policy rate by 75 basis points to a range between 2.25 and 2.5%. The central bank stuck...
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Amid global economic turmoil, stress grips fixed-income markets
Regime change in the global financial markets and the international economy is in play. Investor and policy expectations around globalization, growth and liquidity are all rapidly changing as central...
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The post-pandemic era and the end of hyper-globalization
The American economy is in the midst of a long-lasting structural change following the severe shocks unleashed by the pandemic. The hyper-globalization that has dominated the global economy over the...
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Did fiscal spending go too far? Assessing the global economy.
Fiscal responses by governments around the world during the pandemic were unprecedented. Many governments put forward anywhere between 20% and 30% of gross domestic product in spending to mitigate the...
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Financial conditions and Canada’s real economy
Tightening financial conditions are hurting the Canadian economy to the point where the rising risk of a recession and a housing contraction much larger than anticipated cannot be discounted. Although...
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U.S. economy generates 4.5 million jobs in 2022 as labor market remains hot
If one would have asked a year ago if the economy would expand at above a 2.5% clip and produce 4.52 million jobs by the end of the year, all while the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 450...
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Canada job gains top forecast, complicating decision on rates
The Canadian labour market once again kept managers, investors and, most important, the Bank of Canada on edge as it added 104,000 net jobs in December, significantly higher than the forecast of 5,000....
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U.S. inflation eases in December, supporting a moderation in Fed rate hikes
A third straight month of improvement in top-line inflation data implies that conditions are moving in the direction where the Federal Reserve can consider further moderation in the pace of its rate...
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Home sales dropped by 17.8% last year in biggest drop since 2008
Sales of existing homes fell for the 11th straight month in December, finishing their worst year since 2008, the National Association of Realtors reported on Friday. Still, there is some room left for...
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The pandemic response: Improving policies in future crises
This is the third article in a series examining major economic policy responses to the pandemic that targeted small and midsize businesses. The first article looks at the Paycheck Protection Program,...
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American consumers grow more cautious as spending falls
American consumers pulled back on their spending for the second month in a row in December amid a continuing economic slowdown and elevated inflation. Also contributing to the decline were weak income...
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Blowout January jobs report likely exaggerates hiring
Seasonal noise always presents problems when estimating the January jobs picture at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the first employment estimate of the year serves as a useful reminder not to...
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RSM revises its Fed call as inflation proves sticky
The common thread between the inflation reports for January was a reacceleration in service-based inflation that is proving sticky and is not likely to abate enough for the Federal Reserve to pull back...
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R-star: The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy and...
The pandemic has spurred profound changes in the global economy like a tight labor market and elevated inflation that policymakers are only beginning to understand. But one result is clear: The days of...
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Fed signals end of rate hikes and projects cuts in 2024
The Federal Reserve signaled at its meeting on Wednesday that it is done raising its policy rate and is poised to reduce it by 75 basis points next year, with more cuts after that. The Fed also reduced...
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Bank of Canada holds rates steady at 5% amid weak growth
As expected, the Bank of Canada on Wednesday maintained its policy rate at 5 per cent and continued its restrictive monetary policies. At the same time, though, its public statements signed a more...
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Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024
The Federal Reserve is looking to cut its policy rate three times this year, according to information inferred from the Summary of Economic Projections and policy statement released on Wednesday. The...
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Bank of Canada preview: A dovish tone with rate cuts on horizon
The Bank of Canada will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged when it meets this week, but the tone of its statement will shift to dovish as bank officials recognize easing inflation, the...
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Hot inflation data dims prospects for a Fed rate cut in June
The U.S. consumer price index came in above expectations for March, putting the Federal Reserve in a difficult position as it seeks to starting cutting interest rates this year. Both overall and core...
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American consumers continue to spend despite sticky inflation
Spending remained strong in March on the heels of robust income growth despite sticky inflation, according to Commerce Department data released on Friday. The data pointed to the underlying strength of...
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The case for rate cuts: Read our chief economist’s op-ed in Barron’s
With inflation coming under control around the world, major central banks have embarked on a shift in monetary policy to spur demand and foster economic growth, In the past two days, the Bank of Canada...
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U.S. financial conditions update: A shift in structure and a new center of...
Monetary policy has reached a pivot point, bringing an increased probability for sustained growth and easing fears of a premature end to the business cycle. This improvement should underscore the...
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Fed holds rates steady as it sets up for September cut
The Federal Open Market Committee kept its federal funds policy rate between a range of 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting Wednesday while signaling that it is moving toward easing its restrictive policy...
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Fed cuts rates to support a soft landing in the economy
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday reduced its policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 4.75% and 5% to protect full employment and preserve the soft landing it has achieved following a historic...
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